Today's Global Economic Outlook

Market Overview

An intriguing development in the U.S. elections occurred with a failed assassination attempt on Trump, which unexpectedly boosted his chances of securing the White House. He defiantly pumped his fist with a blood streak on his face, reassuring supporters he would press on. This has reduced uncertainty in the elections and heightened market expectations for yields and the dollar, as investors and analysts anticipate a more hawkish stance under a potential Trump presidency. While these effects may not manifest immediately in the market, prudent positioning is advised to prepare for future developments.

Meanwhile, expectations for upcoming rate cuts remain prominent as a busy week lies ahead. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release this Monday, followed by a speech from Fed Chair Powell. On Tuesday, the release of Retail Sales m/m will provide insights into inflation trends, potentially influencing dovish sentiments if inflation shows a decline.

Beyond U.S. economic data, significant news is expected for CAD, NZD, GBP, and EUR this week, promising an eventful market environment. Geopolitical tensions continue to impact various fronts, adding further complexity to market dynamics. We look into that further in future market insights to be released this week.

GOLD - Last week concluded positively for Gold, as evidenced by a strong upward trend in the H4 chart. Gold reached 7491.779 and is anticipated to surpass 2431.705 post-Fed rate cuts, reflecting optimism. This week's inflation data release is crucial to solidify Gold's third consecutive weekly rise.

SILVER -Silver experienced a dip to test 30.704 after reaching a new high. While further growth is anticipated due to its safe-haven status alongside Gold, caution is advised, particularly concerning upcoming inflation data.

DXY -The dollar initially declined last week but showed a slight recovery after Friday's trading session, finding support around 104.084. However, expectations of rate cuts and soft inflation data expected on Tuesday may exert downward pressure. Reduced election uncertainty could bolster the dollar due to rising yields and hawkish expectations under a potential Trump presidency.

GBPUSD -The Pound demonstrated strong growth in last week's trading, suggesting a robust economy, particularly appealing to investors shifting from the EU for more stable holdings amidst reduced uncertainty.

AUDSUD -The Aussie dollar exhibited substantial growth last week, maintaining strength above 0.67142. Although prices retracted after surpassing the previous high of 0.67600, they remain supported at this level, indicating potential for further gains.

NZDUSD -The Kiwi found support at 0.60954 but faces challenges against the dollar, driven by expectations of earlier policy easing in 2024 following the RBNZ's less hawkish July OCR Review compared to May.

EURUSD - Our outlook for the EURUSD remains cautious amid uncertainties in both economies. Further insights will be provided in upcoming market updates. Current trends suggest a potential upward movement towards 1.08950, contingent upon forthcoming data releases impacting market sentiment. We continue to take note of the trend.

USDJPY -The market showed Yen recovery after last week's trading session. We may expect the growth of the Yen to continue if we see the Japanese economy improve after a hawkish take on monetary policies.

USDCHF - Not many changes were seen in this market after USDCHF opened with a recovery to last week's Monday opening. With that in mind, we may continue to find a bearish market in this chart as analysts continue to expect rate cuts to come into the market soon. Bearish structures are also holding up.

USDCAD - The CAD showed weakness after the price failed to make any significant movements. The price is stuck between 1.36612 and 1.35762. We continue to wait for further price action before calling a bias for this market.

COT Reports Analysis

CAD - Weak (2/5)

CHF - WEAK (5/5)

GBP - Strong (5/5)

JPY - Weak (5/5)

EUR - Strong (3/5)

AUD - Strong (5/5)

NZD - Weak (3/5)

USD - Strong (2/5)

Silver - Strong (5/5)

Gold - Strong (5/5)