Global Market Movements and Key Developments: A Weekly Overview

1

Japan's major stock indices fell by about 20% from their historical highs last month due to the yen surge, tightening monetary policy, and worsening US economic outlook. Both the Topix and Nikkei 225 indices fell by more than 7% in early trading on Monday. This three-day decline is the worst since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, pushing them into a bear market. Topix futures trading was briefly halted due to circuit breakers.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:The yen's strength could continue due to tightening monetary policy.

FX Pair:USD/JPY, EUR/JPY

Impact on Shares:Japanese Market: Negative impact on export and financial stocks.

Companies:Toyota (7203.T), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T)

2

Vice President Kamala Harris met with at least three potential running mates on Sunday: Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. These meetings are part of the final stages before Harris announces her 2024 presidential campaign partner, expected in the coming days.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Political stability could strengthen the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Impact on Shares:US Market: Potential positive impact on political-related stocks.

Companies:General Market Indices

3

On August 4, Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated that despite multiple rumors about the timing of an Iranian and Hezbollah attack on Israel, there have been no changes to emergency instructions for civilians. On August 3, Iran revealed more details about the attack on Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh, claiming Iran will seek revenge.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased geopolitical tension could strengthen the USD.

FX Pair:USD/JPY, USD/CHF

Impact on Shares:Global Market: Negative impact on market sentiment.

Companies:Defense sector stocks, Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC)

4

Following the Venezuelan presidential election, President Nicolás Maduro intensified his crackdown on opposition, arresting 2000 protesters and threatening to imprison them for 30 years. Maduro's harsh statements against opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, and the severe crackdown on their supporters, have drawn international concern. The Canadian government cautiously intervened in the election dispute, refusing to accept Maduro's official results but not directly declaring opposition candidate González as the legitimate winner.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Political instability could weaken the VEF.

FX Pair:USD/VEF

Impact on Shares:Venezuelan Market: Negative impact on local businesses and investments.

Companies:General Market Indices

5

Elon Musk's brain-computer interface company Neuralink Corp. successfully implanted its device in a second patient. Musk revealed this on a podcast hosted by computer scientist Lex Fridman.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Positive technological advancements could strengthen the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Impact on Shares:US Market: Positive impact on tech and healthcare stocks.

Companies:Neuralink, Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL)

6

Satellite images show a large vessel docking at Russia's Arctic LNG export plant last week, seemingly bypassing US sanctions. The facility is led by Novatek PJSC, which has yet to comment on the vessel's arrival.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased geopolitical tensions could strengthen the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/RUB

Impact on Shares:Global Market: Negative impact on market sentiment.

Companies:Novatek (NVTK.MM), Gazprom (GAZP.MM)

7

As new tax rules come into effect on October 1, Indian companies are accelerating stock buybacks. At least 11 companies, including Indus Towers Ltd., have approved or are about to approve stock buybacks, significantly higher than the monthly average of about four transactions in 2023.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Positive corporate actions could strengthen the INR.

FX Pair:USD/INR, EUR/INR

Impact on Shares:Indian Market: Positive impact on stock prices.

Companies:Indus Towers (INDUSTOW.NS), Reliance Industries (RELI.NS)

8

Oil prices fluctuate near a seven-month low as global financial market sell-offs offset Middle East tensions. Traders closely monitor Iran's potential retaliatory strike against Israel. Brent crude futures hover around $77 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate nears $74 per barrel.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Fluctuating oil prices could impact oil-related currencies.

FX Pair:USD/CAD, USD/NOK, USD/RUB

Impact on Shares:Global Market: Mixed impact on energy stocks.

Companies:ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX)

10

Thailand is pushing forward with legalizing casinos to boost tourism and attract billions in foreign investment and tax revenue. The government's legal body released a draft proposal for an initial license valid for 30 years, renewable for another 10 years. These casinos will be part of large entertainment complexes, including hotels, convention centers, and theme parks.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased foreign investment could strengthen the THB.

FX Pair:USD/THB, EUR/THB

Impact on Shares:Thai Market: Positive impact on tourism and hospitality stocks.

Companies:Minor International (MINT.BK), Central Pattana (CPN.BK)

11

Amid global market sell-offs and increased sector rotation in tech stocks, South Korea's benchmark Kospi index fell over 4% in early trading on Monday. The Kospi index has dropped more than 10% since its July 11 high, entering a technical correction. Worries about a US economic slowdown and heightened Middle East tensions caused broad declines in Asia-Pacific markets, with the regional index down over 2% in early trading.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased market volatility could strengthen the USD.

FX Pair:USD/KRW, EUR/KRW

Impact on Shares:South Korean Market: Negative impact on tech and export stocks.

Companies:Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), SK Hynix (000660.KS)

12

China has relied on industrial production to maintain economic growth this year, and upcoming data will provide clues about this support's strength. Export data to be released on Wednesday may show a July increase, highlighting trade as a rare bright spot.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Stronger export data could strengthen the CNY.

FX Pair:USD/CNY, EUR/CNY

Impact on Shares:Chinese Market: Positive impact on industrial and export-related stocks.

Companies:China Mobile (0941.HK), Alibaba Group (BABA)

13

In one of the weakest economies in the Eurozone, Germany shows the most optimistic consumers. This mismatch was evident in Tuesday's data: Germany was the only major economy in the currency area with a decline in output in the second quarter, while July survey data showed further improvement in consumer confidence.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Improved consumer confidence could strengthen the EUR.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Impact on Shares:European Market: Mixed impact on consumer and industrial stocks.

Companies:Deutsche Bank (DBK.DE), Volkswagen (VOW3.DE)

14

Due to base effects, Turkey's inflation rate in July is likely to see the biggest drop in nearly two years. However, the central bank may overlook this slowdown to focus on more pressing price risks. According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, annual price growth is expected to slow from 71.6% in June to 62%. Monthly inflation is expected to accelerate from 1.6% in June to 3.4%. Data will be released at 10 AM local time on Monday.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Persistent inflationary pressure could weaken the TRY.

FX Pair:USD/TRY, EUR/TRY

Impact on Shares:Turkish Market: Mixed impact on financial and consumer stocks.

Companies:Akbank (AKBNK.IS), Turkish Airlines (THYAO.IS)

15

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. stated that Delta Air Lines Inc.'s leadership did not respond to its offers of assistance following a catastrophic system failure last month that led to thousands of flight cancellations and triggered a federal investigation. CrowdStrike claims Delta declined multiple offers of help, and a Sunday letter from its lawyers reiterated this. CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz attempted to contact Delta CEO Ed Bastian but received no response.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Negative corporate developments could weaken the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:US Market: Negative impact on aviation and cybersecurity stocks.

Companies:Delta Air Lines (DAL), CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD)