Today' Economic Updates

GOLD -  GOLD rose despite better-than-expected jobless claims from yesterday's news release. Currently, GOLD is priced near 2431.705. This rise may be attributed to remaining buyers from Mondays initial climb after announcements of an attack in Israel and a positive outlook on a rate cut for September. We may see real movement throughout the day if there are no sudden news developments.

SILVER - As expected, SILVER has risen to previously seen levels. This increase, alongside GOLDs rise, suggests that investors are returning to safe-haven assets rather than their riskier counterparts--expecting more demand for metals in the coming weeks. With that said, we continue to see that in the near term, some traders have moved onto risk-on assets after better than expected Jobless claims. However, this may not be for long as we can see traders taking this opportunity as a means to gain profit before the bigger storm in the coming weeks.

DXY - Better-than-expected jobless claims from yesterday have provided some relief for traders who were bracing for impact and worrying about the economy's health. While the sudden rise in jobless claims may have stemmed from layoffs by massive tech companies, some sectors still show sufficient growth. However, the price is currently finding less momentum for its rise. 

By the end of this trading week, we may see prices lower at 107.775. Nevertheless, the overall market did not show a decisive move other than a few risk-on assets, and most charts are in a consolidated or corrective state. 

Brokerages including J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have forecast a 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in September following last week's U.S. jobs data. 

The market sees a 72% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September, up from 70% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, with an additional cut anticipated in December. U.S. data showed there were 233,000 initial jobless claims last week, below the 240,000 expected by economists and down from 250,000 the week before, easing worries of a slowdown in the world's largest economy.

GBPUSD -The price has failed to reach the anchor point at 1.26480, indicating that the pound's strength is playing a role in preventing further drops against the dollar. While the dollars own strength may also contribute to this, we may see the market rise more as the week comes to a close. However, there is a higher chance that the price will consolidate.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar has found considerable gains after the RBA maintained its rates and adopted a more hawkish stance, increasing currency strength, with yields rising from the market open this week. The Aussie was underpinned by surprisingly hawkish guidance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this week, as Governor Michele Bullock all but ruled out a rate cut for the remainder of the year. Markets now imply just a 46% chance of a cut by November, compared to 88% at the start of the week, though they are still wagering on a move in December.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi also found strength after better-than-expected results in inflation expectations. Market bets on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have shifted entirely the other way after a drop in inflation expectations stoked speculation of a cut next week. The central bank meets on Aug. 14, and swaps imply an 81% probability it will cut the 5.5% cash rate by 25 basis points. Markets are pricing in 92 basis points of easing this year and another 148 basis points in 2025. A Reuters poll of 31 analysts found that 12 expected a cut next week, with the rest predicting no move.

EURUSD - Euro strength stagnates after an overwhelming rise from Mondays open. Currently, the price settles near 1.08950, but we may see some action come into this market soon as investors weigh the impact of an Iran attack on Israel in the region. We continue to wait for further price action to come into markets before calling any movements.

USDJPY - The dollar has recovered slightly against the yen, coming back to the 146.405 support. BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida eased market concerns by emphasizing that the Bank of Japans interest rate path could change if market volatility affects their economic forecasts, risk assessments, and projections. He stated that Japan is not in a situation where they need to hike rates at a set pace and that they will avoid rate hikes during unstable market conditions. Uchida believes the U.S. economy can achieve a soft landing and sees no significant changes in the economic fundamentals of Japan and the U.S., suggesting that market reactions to single U.S. data points are exaggerated.

He highlighted the extreme volatility in recent market moves and stressed the importance of monitoring their impact on the economy and prices with vigilance. Uchida also mentioned that there is no difference in views between himself and BOJ Governor Ueda and that the BOJ has the flexibility to choose when to hike rates in a moderate environment.

However, we personally continue to see a massive rise in Yen demand. However, this may depend on how the BOJ will control future rate hikes since theyve announced that they are to take a more careful stance when hiking rates to allow for the economy to adjust.

USDCHF -The CHF has lost against the dollar, and the bank is expected to cut rates further to prevent hurting exporters. With that said, we continue to see more strength coming into the currency despite two rate cuts implemented this year. We see the price under 0.87041, and with technical analysis, we expect prices to fall further and the CHF strength to come into the market.

USDCAD - The CAD has currently run down toward 1.17261, and as we expected, the CAD strength has come into the market.

“That volatility we saw in stocks on Monday when Canada was effectively out, probably was the low point for the Canadian dollar,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.

“The market is extremely short Canadian dollars ... that should be a bit of a warning light on the dashboard that the CAD sell-off has possibly gone a bit too far.”

Speculators have raised their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar to an all-time high, recent data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. (1090741NNET)

With this move in the market, the daily chart has shown a continuation of the consolidation.