Crude Oil Prices Risk Fresh 2019 Highs as RSI Sits in Overbought Territory

Crude Oil Price Talking Points

原油价格谈判点

Crude remains bid despite an unexpected jump in U.S. inventories, and oil prices may trade higher over the coming days as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies continue to regulate the energy market, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in overbought territory for the first time in 2019.

尽管美国库存意外大幅上涨，原油价格仍未上涨，未来几天油价可能走高随着石油输出国组织（OPEC）及其盟国继续监管能源市场，而相对强弱指数（RSI）在2019年首次处于超买区域。

Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil: Bullish

原油基本面预测：看涨

Current market conditions may keep oil prices afloat ahead of OPEC‘s Joint Ministerial Monitory Committee (JMMC) meeting on May 19 as Secretary General Mohammad Barkindoinsists that the ’Declaration of Cooperation‘ has helped to ’return balance to the market and reintroduced a long-absent element of stability.

目前的市场状况可能会在欧佩克于5月19日举行的联合部长监督委员会（JMMC）会议前作为秘书长保持油价上涨Mohammad Barkindoinsists认为，“合作宣言”有助于“恢复市场平衡，并重新引入长期缺乏的稳定因素。”

The comments suggest OPEC and its allies are in no rush to boost production even though U.S. Crude Inventories jumped 7,238K in the week ending March 29, and the group may curb oil output beyond the June deadline as the updates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show weekly field production of crude oil climbing to a fresh record of 12,200K b/d during the same period.

评论提示欧佩克尽管美国原油库存在截至3月29日的一周内增加了7,238,000，但由于美国能源情报署（EIA）每周更新的报道，该集团可能会将石油产量限制在6月截止日期之后，其盟友并不急于提高产量。同期原油产量攀升至12,200K桶/日的新纪录。

However, recent comments coming out of Russia suggest the region is reluctant to extend the OPEC+ alliance as Energy Minister Alexander Novak argues that ‘it’s tooearly to say whether the deal will be extended,‘ and U.S. President Donald Trump may continue to respond to rising energy prices as he tweets ’world markets are fragile, price of oil getting too high.

然而，俄罗斯近期发表的评论表明，该地区不愿延长原油产量。石油输出国组织+能源部长亚历山大诺瓦克联盟认为，“说这笔交易是否会延长是太过分了”，美国总统唐纳德特朗普可能继续应对能源价格上涨，因为他的推文世界市场很脆弱，石油价格过高。

With that said, oil prices may trade to fresh yearly highs as crude continues to track the upward trending channel from late-2018, and the bullish momentum appears to be gathering pace as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights similar dynamic, with the oscillator sitting in overbought territory for the first time in 2019. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

据此，由于原油价格继续上涨，油价可能会再创新高跟踪2018年末的上行趋势通道，随着相对强弱指数（RSI）强调类似动态，看涨势头似乎正在加速，震荡指数在2019年首次处于超买区域。报名参与并加入DailyFX货币分析师David Song LIVE有机会讨论潜在的交易设置。

CL1 Daily Chart

CL1每日图表

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Crude extends the advance from the 2018-low ($42.36) following the failed attempt to close below the $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) area, with the price for oil coming up against the Fibonacci overlap around $62.70 (61.8% retracement) to $63.70 (38.2% retracement).

原油期货从2018年低点（42.36美元）延伸，此前未能尝试收盘跌破55.10美元（61.8％扩大）至55.60美元（61.8％回撤位）区域，油价上涨反对斐波纳契重叠在62.70美元附近（61.8％回撤位）至63.70美元（38.2％回撤位）。

Need a break/close above the overlap to bring the $64.90 (100% expansion) to $65.90 (78.6% retracement) area on the radar, with the next topside region of interest coming in around $68.80 (23.6% retracement) to $69.20 (50% retracement).

需要突破/收盘重叠以带来$ 64.90（100％扩张）至雷达上空区域为65.90美元（78.6％回撤位），下一个上行区域位于68.80美元附近（23.6％回撤位）至69.20美元（50％回撤位）。

Will keep a close eye on the RSI as it sits in overbought territory for the first time in 2019, but may see a textbook sell-signal emerge should the oscillator fall below 70, which may spur a move back towards the $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement) area.

将保持密切关注RSI，因为它在2019年首次处于超买区域，但如果振荡指标跌破70，可能会出现教科书卖出信号，这可能刺激回到59.00美元（61.8％的回撤位） $ 59.70（50％回撤位）区域。

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

---由David Song撰写，货币分析师