Indias bluechip Nifty index to snap seven-yr winning run -BofA Global Research

(Reuters) – Indias bluechip Nifty 50 index will end at around 18,000 points this year, about 5.5% higher than current levels but roughly flat with end-2022, as company earnings will be hit by high rates among other factors, BofA Global Research said.

（路透社）——美国银行全球研究部表示，印度蓝筹 nifty 50 指数今年将收于 18,000 点左右，比当前水平高出约 5.5%，但与 2022 年底基本持平，因为公司盈利将受到高利率等因素的打击.

BofA cut its year-end target for the Nifty by 8.3% to 18,000, implying a 0.6% drop for the year after seven straight years of gains of 3%-29%, and underperforming other emerging markets and debt, the brokerage said in a note on Monday.

美国银行将 nifty 的年终目标下调 8.3% 至 18,000 点，这意味着在连续七年上涨 3%-29% 之后今年下跌 0.6%，并且表现不及其他新兴市场和债务，该经纪商在一份报告中表示注意周一。

The Nifty has fallen about 6% so far this year to just below 17,100 points and BofA Global expects the index to trade between 16,000 to 18,000 for the rest of the year due to the volatility unleashed by the global banking crisis.

今年迄今为止，nifty 指数已下跌约 6%，略低于 17,100 点，美国银行全球预计，由于全球银行业危机引发的动荡，该指数今年剩余时间的交易区间将在 16,000 点至 18,000 点之间。

Indian companies earnings growth estimates for the next two fiscal years could be halved due to tightening U.S. monetary policy, warmer weather affecting the recovery in rural demand, peaking urban demand and rising deposit rates, analysts led by Amish Shah said.

以 amish shah 为首的分析师表示，由于美国货币政策收紧、天气转暖影响农村需求复苏、城市需求见顶以及存款利率上升，印度公司未来两个财年的盈利增长预期可能会减半。

High-risk sectors such as consumer, telecom and information technology could underperform the Nifty, said Shah, continuing to favour industries with a capex upcycle such as financials, industrials, cement, steel and autos.

shah 表示，消费、电信和信息技术等高风险行业的表现可能不及 nifty，继续看好金融、工业、水泥、钢铁和汽车等资本支出上升周期的行业。

BofA also expects the rate of foreign institutional investors (FII) outflows to slow down, saying that while FII‘s bullish position on India is at multi-year lows, it is unlikely to contract rapidly as it expects the country’s economic performance to hold up well in a global slowdown.

美国银行还预计外国机构投资者 (fii) 的流出速度将放缓，称虽然 fii 对印度的看涨头寸处于多年低点，但不太可能迅速收缩，因为它预计该国的经济表现将在全球经济放缓。

“We estimate $20 billion of passive domestic inflow via provident/pension/Insurance funds and SIPs – mostly invested in Nifty/Sensex ETF – could provide support to large caps,” Shah said.

“我们估计 200 亿美元通过公积金/养老金/保险基金和 sip 的被动国内资金流入——主要投资于 nifty/sensex etf——可以为大型股提供支持，”shah 说。

In case of a recession, BofA still expects the Indian economy to fare better and rebound faster than the U.S. economy.

在经济衰退的情况下，美国银行仍预计印度经济将比美国经济表现更好，反弹速度更快。

(Reporting by Aniruddha Ghosh in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio DSouza)

（班加罗尔 aniruddha ghosh 报道；savio dsouza 编辑）