Gold Price Eyes Fed, but Gold Volatility (GVZ) Hints at Upside

GOLD PRICE, GOLD VOLATILITY, JULY FED MEETING – SUMMARY POINTS

黄金价格，黄金波动，7月份会议 - 汇总点

• Gold prices turn to the July Fed meeting for its next move

  黄金价格转向7月美联储会议下一步行动

• Rising gold price volatility suggests XAUUSD could continue to climb

  黄金价格波动上升表明XAUUSD可能继续攀升

Gold prices have soared well over 12% so far this year driven largely by safe-haven demand and plummeting interest rates amid trade war fears and slowing GDP growth. While gold traders will likely turn to the July Fed meeting for clues on where spot prices will head next, gold price volatility could be suggesting that the precious metal will continue its ascent.

黄金价格今年迄今为止，由于贸易战的担忧和GDP增长放缓，避险需求和利率暴跌，导致今年以来飙升至12％以上。虽然黄金交易商可能会转向7月份美联储会议，寻找现货价格下行的线索，但黄金价格波动可能暗示贵金属将继续上涨。

SPOT GOLD (XAUUSD) AND GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY (GVZ) CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (NOVEMBER 20, 2018 TO JULY 30, 2019)

SPOT黄金（XAUUSD）和黄金价格波动（GVZ）图表：每日时间框架（2018年11月20日至2019年7月30日）

Gold price volatility – also referred to by its ticker symbol “GVZ” – is a measure of markets expected 30-day price movement in the SPDR Gold ETF (ticker symbol GLD). Unlike most asset classes, spot gold prices typically benefit from rising volatility. This mostly-positive relationship between spot gold and gold price volatility is depicted in the chart above.

黄金价格波动 - 也称为其股票代码“GVZ” - 是市场预期SPDR黄金ETF（股票代码符号GLD）30天价格变动的指标。与大多数资产类别不同，现货黄金价格通常受益于波动性上升。现货黄金和黄金价格波动之间的这种主要正相关关系如上图所示。

GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY (GVZ) AND VIX INDEX PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (NOVEMBER 20, 2018 TO JULY 30, 2019)

黄金价格波动率（GVZ）和VIX指数价格表：每日时间框架（11月20日） ，2018年至2019年7月30日）

Also, further gold price volatility is suggested by the recent rise in the VIX Index – Cboes 30-day implied volatility reading on the S&P 500 – due to their generally high degree of correlation. If the July Fed meeting disappoints markets with the central bank refusing to capitulate to the lofty rate cut expectations currently priced in, that could cause a jump in the VIX which would likely follow a selloff in risk assets. In turn, spot gold prices could catch a safe-haven bid. Accordingly, if volatility extends its climb following the July Fed meeting, measured via GVZ or VIX, it will likely bode well for spot gold prices.

此外，最近的VIX指数上涨暗示了黄金价格的进一步波动 - Cboes 30标准普尔500指数的日隐含波动率 - 由于其普遍高度的相关性。如果7月美联储会议令市场失望，央行拒绝加息目前定价的高估降息预期较晚，这可能会导致VIX大幅上涨，这可能会跟随风险资产的抛售。反过来，现货金价可能会获得避险买盘。因此，如果波动率在7月美联储会议之后延续其上涨，通过GVZ或VIX衡量，它可能对现货黄金价格有利。