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Abstract:British Pound fell on Brexit worries while the S&P 500 pared losses on a mixed US jobs report. Asia stocks may welcome first HKMA peg
Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Point
British Pound weakened on Brexit worries, USD paused gai
S&P 500 pared losses on mixed US jobs report as NZD gained
Asia stocks may rise after HKMA peg defend, eyeing Powell
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Key FX Developments Friday
The British Pound was one of the worst-performing majors on Friday, depreciating as Brexit worries increased. Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier announced a deal to allow the Irish Backstop to just apply to Northern Ireland instead of the entire United Kingdom. But this is not to UK Prime Minister Theresa Mays liking. Her divorce deal heads to Parliament again for one last round of voting this week.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar paused its ascent as it slowly sunk with local front-end government bond yields throughout the session. Losses were amplified following a mixed US jobs report. While the nation unexpectedly added the least amount of positions since 2017, wage growth picked up as the unemployment rate ticked lower.
Initial reaction in the markets was risk aversion, sending the S&P 500 lower. But the US benchmark stock index pared losses towards the end of the session. Due to a gap to the downside, it extended its losing streak to four days. Thanks to weakness in the Greenback and the last-minute recovery in stocks, the pro-risk Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed.
Mondays Asia Pacific Trading Sessio
Asia Pacific benchmark stock indexes could be in for a dose of optimism following recent losses. For one thing, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority stepped in to defend their peg for the first time since back in August 2018. The HKMA bought about HK$1.5b to defend their currency after markets closed for the weekend. This comes after the recent bout of USD gains (see chart below). In the past, HKMA interventionthat upheld HKD boosted sentiment.
Markets are also eyeing an interview from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as the new week begins. While he may offer little in terms of guidance on monetary policy that isnt already known, views on economic growth or the global environment have a greater chance of stoking volatility. If the Nikkei 225 does pause its decline and aim higher, the anti-risk Japanese Yen may gain.
USD/HKD Daily Chart
Chart Created in TradingView
US Trading Session Economic Event
Asia Pacific Trading Session Economic Event
** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here
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The Japanese Yen rose 0.7% against the US Dollar after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at potential rate hikes. This coincided with a recovery in Asian markets, aided by stronger Chinese stocks. With the July FOMC minutes already pointing to a September rate cut, the US Dollar might edge higher into the weekend.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded sideways against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, staying just below the seven-month high of 0.6798 reached on Monday. The downside for the AUD/USD pair is expected to be limited due to differing policy outlooks between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve. The RBA Minutes indicated that a rate cut is unlikely soon, and Governor Michele Bullock affirmed the central bank's readiness to raise rates again if necessary to combat inflation.
JPY strengthened against the USD, pushing USD/JPY near 145.00, driven by strong inflation data and BoJ rate hike expectations. Japan's strong Q2 GDP growth added support. However, USD gains may be limited by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
Gold prices remain above $2,500, near record highs, as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee minutes for confirmation of a potential Fed rate cut in September. The Fed's dovish shift, prioritizing employment over inflation, has weakened the US Dollar, boosting gold. A recent revision showing the US created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported also strengthens the case for a rate cut.