Australian Dollar Likely Loser In Ugly Contest With US Cousin

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

基本澳元预测：看跌

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• But the Fed has also made investors aware that the likes of the Aussie have even less support

  li> 但美联储也让投资者意识到澳大利亚人的支持率更低了

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollars prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

了解什么零售外汇交易员现在正在实现澳元兑美元的预测，实时，在DailyFX情绪页面

The Australian Dollar faces a very modest week of domestic economic data which will likely leave current themes to play out a little further.

澳大利亚元面临一周非常温和的国内经济数据让当前的主题更进一步发挥。

The currency shared fully in the lift given to many US Dollar rivals when the Federal Reserve struck a dovish monetary policy tone last Wednesday. That central bank now only expects rates to rise once before the end of 2020 as a base case, and some futures markets doubt that well see even that solitary move. No wonder the greenback slipped.

当美联储击中一名执政官时，货币在许多美元对手的电梯中完全分享上周三的货币政策基调。该中央银行现在只预计在2020年底之前一次上调利率作为一个基本情况，一些期货市场怀疑甚至可以看到这种孤立的举动。难怪美元下跌。

However, there was a little rethink shortly after the Fed shot its bolt. Markets came to the fully logical conclusion that, if the US is going to halt monetary tightening, then those who‘ve yet to start surely won’t be doing so anytime soon. This category includes of course the Reserve Bank of Australia. Its own key short-term interest rate is stuck at the 1.50% record-low which has pertained since August 2016. Indeed, the RBA itself changed tack last month and admitted that more cuts could be needed. Before it had loudly trumpeted the view that the next move was likely to be a rise.

然而，在美联储出手后不久，有一点反思。市场得出了一个完全合乎逻辑的结论：如果美国要停止货币紧缩政策，那么那些尚未开始的人肯定不会很快就会这样做。该类别当然包括澳大利亚储备银行。其自身的关键短期利率维持在自2016年8月以来的1.50％创纪录低位。事实上，澳大利亚央行本身在上个月改变了策略并承认可能需要更多削减。在此之前大肆宣扬下一步行动可能会上升的观点。

If the Fed‘s announcement has turned developed market currency trading into a ’least ugly tournament, then the US Dollar is at present the most likely winner simply because its base rates start the contest higher than most.

如果美联储宣布将发达的市场货币交易转变为“最不丑陋的比赛”，那么美元目前是最有可能的赢家，因为它的基本利率开始了高于大多数人。

There was a little cloud cast over one of the Australian economy‘s brightest spots last week. Official employment data showed a very modest increase in overall employment and a sharp-fall in full time hiring. Both were glossed over in the market by news that the official unemployment rate edged down in February below 5%, for the first time since 2011. Still, there’s no denying that this was a very mixed set of figures and a very far cry from the blockbuster releases weve become almost used to. This series can be volatile but the next release will bear close watching. After all, even strong employment growth has proven resolutely non-inflationary for Australia, part of the clear lack of pricing power which continues to weigh on Australian interest rates.

上周在澳大利亚经济最亮点之一上投下了一点云。官方就业数据显示整体就业人数略有增加，全职招聘人数急剧下降。 2月份官方失业率自2月份以来首次小幅下跌至5％以下，这是自2011年以来首次出现在市场上。但无可否认，这是一个非常复杂的数字，与此相去甚远。我们几乎习惯了大片的发布。这个系列可能会波动，但下一个版本将密切关注。毕竟，即使是强劲的就业增长也证明澳大利亚坚定不通货膨胀，这是明显缺乏定价能力的一部分，这继续拖累澳大利亚的利率。

In the coming week then, the Aussie may well benefit as it often does from any gains in general market risk appetite. But with interest rate differentials back to the fore, its bulls may find little to celebrate. Its a bearish call this week.

未来一周然后，澳大利亚可能会从一般市场风险偏好的任何收益中获益。但随着利率差异重新出现，它的多头可能无法庆祝。本周这是一个看跌的看法。

Looking for a technical perspective on the AUD？ Check out the Weekly AUD Technical Forecast.

寻找有关澳元的技术观点？查看每周澳元技术预测。

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--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

---由David Cottle撰写，DailyFX Research