Asia shares brace for hawkish Fed, wary of potential Ukraine conflict

Adding to the caution were concerns about a possible Russian attack on Ukraine with the U.S. State Department pulling out family members of its embassy staff in Kyiv.

The New York Times reported President Joe Biden was considering sending thousands of U.S. troops to NATO allies in Europe along with warships and aircraft.

MSCI‘s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.7% and Japan’s Nikkei 0.1%. Chinese blue chips added 0.4%, perhaps aided by the recent easing in policy by Beijing.

In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.4%, while FTSE futures fell 0.2%.

But Wall Street futures bounced after last weeks drubbing, with the S&P 500 futures up 0.7% and Nasdaq futures 0.8%.

Anxious markets are now even pricing in a small chance the Fed hikes rates this week, though the overwhelming expectation is for a first move to 0.25% in March and three more to 1.0% by year end.

“With inflation eye-wateringly high, the Fed is on course to steadily remove the ultra-accommodative monetary policy that has been a key prop to stock prices for over a decade now,” said Oliver Allen, a market economist at Capital Economics.

The prospect of higher borrowing costs and more attractive bond yields has taken a toll on tech stocks with their lofty valuations, leaving the Nasdaq down 12% so far this year and the S&P 500 nearly 8%.

The rout was exacerbated by a slide in Netflix, which tumbled almost 22% on a gloomy forecast for subscriber growth, shedding $44 billion in market value.

Such was the scale of the losses that Treasuries actually rallied late last week on speculation the bonfire of market wealth might scare the Fed into being less hawkish, a variation of the old Greenspan put.

However, Allen noted that even with the recent drop the S&P 500 was still 40% above where it ended 2019, and the Nasdaq 60%.

“Investors may not be able to rely on a so-called ‘Fed put’ this time around, given that the central banks tightening cycle has not even begun, and that the strength of the U.S. economy suggests that much tighter policy is warranted.”

Indeed, the first reading of U.S. gross domestic product for the December quarter is due this week and forecast to show growth running at an annualised 5.4% before Omicron put its foot on the brakes.

Earnings season is also well under way and companies reporting this week include IBM, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Tesla and Apple.

Around a fifth of the S&P 500 is expected to provide quarterly updates this week.

While Treasuries did bounce late last week, 10-year yields are still up 22 basis points on the month so far at 1.77% and not far from levels last seen in early 2020.

That rise has generally supported the U.S. dollar, which added 0.5% on a basket of currencies last week and last stood at 85.647. The euro was stuck at $1.1324, having failed to sustain a recent rally to near $1.1500.

“The risk is the Fed‘s statement portrays an urgency to act soon, likely in March, in the face of very high inflation,” said Joseph Capurso, CBA’s head of international economics.

“That could even encourage markets to price a risk of a 50 basis point rate hike in March and, under that scenario, we expect a knee-jerk reaction above its 4 January high of 96.46.”

The Japanese yen tends to benefit from safe haven flows as stocks crumble, keeping the dollar at 113.84 and uncomfortably close to last weeks low of 113.47.

Gold held up at $1,836 an ounce, having hit a six-week peak of $1,842 last week. [GOL/]

Oil prices were rising again having climbed for five weeks in a row to a seven-year peak on expectations demand will stay strong and supplies limited. [O/R]

Brent added 83 cents to $88.72 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 77 cents to $85.91.