摘要:After a very good year in 2020 and an almost stable January, gold prices recorded a sharp correction in February.
After a very good year in 2020 and an almost stable January, gold prices recorded a sharp correction in February. The precious metal has continued its downtrend on Thursday, falling by 0.80 percent on the day.
Gold is down by roughly 17% from its peak last August and by approximately 10% since the beginning of the year. It must be noted that prices are locked in a bearish channel, so sellers are keeping their hands on the market.
“This is one of the worst starts to the year in the last 20 years, fuelled by a sharp rise in interest rates which, for the time being, is taking place without upsetting the precarious financial balances,” commented the Comptoir National de l'Or.
Since the beginning of the crisis, most states have injected considerable sums of money into the economy. In addition, central banks have printed more than $8 trillion to save the financial markets.
This liquidity has given oxygen to the economy, especially to businesses, and has also raised the risk of inflation, i.e. the risk of price increases in the medium term. In this context, investors are selling government debt, believing that despite its security, it does not yield enough in relation to inflation.
The economic outlook is improving as support plans and immunization rolls out. As a result, market participants believe that the Fed will raise its interest rates earlier than expected, which are between 0 and 0.25 percent, to cope with expected inflation starting in the spring.
Tensions on the bond market remain a key concern, whereas a sharp rise in rates last month had worried investors and caused a selling movement on equities and precious metals. On Wednesday, the 10-year US Treasury bond rate rose by more than 6 basis points to 1.481% from 1.413% on Tuesday. However, it remains below the 1.513% peak reached last week.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 04.03.2021)
To sum it up, our forecast remains bearish in the short term, with bond yields expected to rise further as growth expectations and the economic outlook brighten.
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
免责声明:
本文观点仅代表作者个人观点,不构成本平台的投资建议,本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性作出任何保证,亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任
昨晚商品大幅上涨,原因是美联储6月加息预期大幅回落,ADP数据再度大超预期,反映出目前就业市场依然偏强运行。
市场目前预计,美联储6月维持利率不变的可能性不到40%。如果在今年晚些时候(美联储)采取更温和的态度,这意味着可能会出现一定程度的利率放松,将被视为利好股市,同时也会降低投资者持有黄金的意愿。
上周金价震荡回落,美国两党接近谈妥债务上限,打压避险情绪。
昨天黄金窄幅震荡,有消息称新一轮美国债务上限谈判结束时没有取得多少进展,市场避险情绪升温,美债收益率也从逾两个月高点小幅回落,给金价提供反弹机会。