摘要:The price of gold has rebounded in recent days to return near its March highs.
The price of gold has rebounded in recent days to return near its March highs. The precious metal is benefiting in the short term from the consolidation of long rates, but also from the US infrastructure investment plan.
Joe Biden presented the first part of the plan last week which is smaller than expected, $2.3 trillion against expectations of between $3 trillion and $4 trillion, but which should be accompanied by a second part this summer.
This bill is positive for gold in the current environment where the market fears a slippage in inflation and debt that is already at levels not seen since World War II.
That said, the outlook for gold is still bearish. Although rates have been consolidating in recent days, their trend remains bullish. As long as real long rates in the U.S. are bullish, the bond market will look increasingly attractive, which will put pressure on gold.
In terms of technical analysis, the underlying trend has been unquestionably bearish since last fall. Nonetheless, since reaching its May 2020 lows at around $1660, gold has been consolidating between this support and its former November 2020 low at $1764, which was breached in late February.
Below $1764, the bearish outlook continues to dominate. A return near this resistance could actually be an attractive price level to reposition in the direction of the underlying trend.
The outlook would only become bullish again if the price of gold breaks through this resistance. The price of gold would then form a bearish “double bottom” reversal pattern, which would pave the way for gold to return to the top of its long-term bearish channel.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 06.04.2021)
In practical terms, market participants' outlook on the global economy will dictate gold's trend. The more optimistic investors are about the economy, the more long-rates will rise, which will put pressure on gold (and vice versa).
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
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昨晚商品大幅上涨,原因是美联储6月加息预期大幅回落,ADP数据再度大超预期,反映出目前就业市场依然偏强运行。
市场目前预计,美联储6月维持利率不变的可能性不到40%。如果在今年晚些时候(美联储)采取更温和的态度,这意味着可能会出现一定程度的利率放松,将被视为利好股市,同时也会降低投资者持有黄金的意愿。
上周金价震荡回落,美国两党接近谈妥债务上限,打压避险情绪。
昨天黄金窄幅震荡,有消息称新一轮美国债务上限谈判结束时没有取得多少进展,市场避险情绪升温,美债收益率也从逾两个月高点小幅回落,给金价提供反弹机会。