摘要:Gold prices have shown signs of weakness on Wednesday as long-term rates rebound.
Gold prices have shown signs of weakness on Wednesday as long-term rates rebound.
The ounce of gold has been declining since last week's high of $1800 and since the U.S. 10-year yield rebounded. From last week's low, the U.S. 10-year yield gained 10 basis points yesterday to 1.62% ahead of the FOMC's decision on Fed monetary policy.
The status quo is widely expected, but investors will be paying close attention to the language used in Jerome Powell's statement and speech, as it could provide clues to the timing of monetary tightening.
In addition to the Fed, investors will be closely watching the first estimate of the first-quarter GDP for the U.S. and the Eurozone released on Thursday and Friday respectively. The consensus is for 6.1% annualized growth in the U.S., up from 4.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. The New York Fed and Atlanta Fed models are expecting higher-than-expected growth of 6.8% and 8.2% respectively.
From a technical perspective, the outlook for gold prices is turning bearish again this morning as gold has broken through the neckline of its “head and shoulders” reversal pattern. This technical pattern provides a theoretical bearish outlook to at least $1,740, but the reversal could be more significant if long rates were to rise to their recent highs.
The 4-hour Bollinger Bands have also given a bearish signal as gold has just broken out from the bottom after a short squeeze period. This is theoretically a signal for a bearish impulse.
The bearish outlook would be invalidated if a bounce above $1790 occurs, which could be the case if the Fed is more dovish/pessimistic than expected.
Meanwhile, in the forex market, it's another session of near-stagnation of the major currency pairs, the 'pivot' Dollar now showing 72H of stability against the Euro (1.2080), the Swiss Franc, and the Pound.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 28.04.2021)
This apathy of the currencies is not completely incongruous in these sessions almost devoid of any statistics ... but it has lasted for 3 days, with a perfectly identical intraday volatility since Monday, which is more unusual (the last comparable episode dates back to mid-February).
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
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昨晚商品大幅上涨,原因是美联储6月加息预期大幅回落,ADP数据再度大超预期,反映出目前就业市场依然偏强运行。
市场目前预计,美联储6月维持利率不变的可能性不到40%。如果在今年晚些时候(美联储)采取更温和的态度,这意味着可能会出现一定程度的利率放松,将被视为利好股市,同时也会降低投资者持有黄金的意愿。
上周金价震荡回落,美国两党接近谈妥债务上限,打压避险情绪。
昨天黄金窄幅震荡,有消息称新一轮美国债务上限谈判结束时没有取得多少进展,市场避险情绪升温,美债收益率也从逾两个月高点小幅回落,给金价提供反弹机会。