摘要:Gold prices have been rebounding since Friday following the disappointing US jobs report
Gold prices have been rebounding since Friday following the disappointing US jobs report. The number of new jobs created was once again lower than expected, at 559,000 compared to expectations of 650,000.
In addition, the participation rate, which measures the number of people working or actively seeking work compared to the labor force, fell to 61.6% from 61.7%, while the average in recent years before the pandemic began was around 63%.
This disappointing employment report diminishes fears of an overheating economy and therefore a normalization of the Fed's monetary policy. Indeed, the Fed should not start normalizing its policy until the job market has returned to its pre-crisis level.
The probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of the year fell from 11% at the beginning of the month to 6% on Friday, after the release of the NFP. As a result, long rates have fallen. The yield on U.S. 10-year bonds fell 7 basis points to 1.55%.
The price of gold took advantage of this to rebound thanks to the decline in real bond yields and the dollar. Indeed, U.S. real rates, i.e. adjusted for inflation expectations, continue to drive the gold price. The correlation between the two is negative. A decline in real rates means that bond yields are eroding, so investors prefer gold as a hedge against inflation.
The next economic releases will be crucial for the markets. The better the statistics, the faster the economy will return to its pre-crisis level and the faster the Fed will normalize its monetary policy. Normalization of monetary policy would be beneficial for cash and negative for other markets (stocks, bonds, precious metals).
The next key reports will be the employment reports, namely the JOLTS report released tomorrow, and the unemployment benefit registrations released every Thursday. The US Consumer Price Index for May is also expected on Thursday.
In terms of technical analysis, gold's trend continues to be bullish. Gold prices bounced off the bottom of its ascending channel on Friday thanks to the disappointing NFP. As long as gold does not break out from the bottom of its channel, the outlook remains technically bullish. The next major resistance will be the high of the year in January at around $1960.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 07.06.2021)
Should the channel break out from the bottom and fall below Friday's low at $1,855, the outlook would turn bearish. A correction to the mid-May low of $1808 would be expected.
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
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昨晚商品大幅上涨,原因是美联储6月加息预期大幅回落,ADP数据再度大超预期,反映出目前就业市场依然偏强运行。
市场目前预计,美联储6月维持利率不变的可能性不到40%。如果在今年晚些时候(美联储)采取更温和的态度,这意味着可能会出现一定程度的利率放松,将被视为利好股市,同时也会降低投资者持有黄金的意愿。
上周金价震荡回落,美国两党接近谈妥债务上限,打压避险情绪。
昨天黄金窄幅震荡,有消息称新一轮美国债务上限谈判结束时没有取得多少进展,市场避险情绪升温,美债收益率也从逾两个月高点小幅回落,给金价提供反弹机会。