摘要:The price of gold has been under pressure since the beginning of the week after rising to a one-month high of 1,834 per ounce.
The price of gold has been under pressure since the beginning of the week after rising to a one-month high of 1,834 per ounce.
Thi
decline can be explained by a rebound of the dollar after falling to a
low of more than a month last week following disappointing U.S. economic
statistics that call into question the Fed's tapering outlook.
Indeed,
several sets of statistics came in below expectations in recent weeks,
including the monthly jobs report, which showed only 235,000 jobs
created in August, versus 750,000 expected.
I
addition to the rebound in the dollar, the gold price is also under
pressure due to the rise in real rates for nearly a month. The real
yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond rose from a low of -1.19% on
August 3 to -0.98% on September 6, improving the attractiveness of the
US bond market and thus putting pressure on alternative "safe haven"
assets like gold.
The
JOLTS jobs report and the Fed's Beige Book released on Wednesday are
expected to be particularly important for investors' outlook on the
economy, the Fed's monetary policy, and thus the financial markets. A
Beige Book showing an overheating economy would fuel the tapering
outlook, while a report showing slowing domestic demand would further
discount the tapering outlook.
From
a technical perspective, gold is retreating from a key resistance at
1,834 correspondings to the early July high below which gold had already
retreated in late July. Although the trend is short-term bullish, the
risk/reward ratio does not favor buying strategies below this
resistance. It will be preferable to wait for a breakout or a
retracement before looking to buy.
The
risk/reward ratio is currently in favor of sellers. A pullback below
Friday's low of about 1,808 would pave the way for a retracement of the
recent bullish rally. A return to the pivot at 1,755 would then be
expected in the short term.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 07.09.2021)
If
the price rebounds and breaks above the resistance at 1,834, the
outlook would be bullish again in the short term and a return to the
June high at 1,916 could be expected.
Disclaimer:
This material has been created for information purposes only. All view
expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent
the opinions of any entity.
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昨晚商品大幅上涨,原因是美联储6月加息预期大幅回落,ADP数据再度大超预期,反映出目前就业市场依然偏强运行。
市场目前预计,美联储6月维持利率不变的可能性不到40%。如果在今年晚些时候(美联储)采取更温和的态度,这意味着可能会出现一定程度的利率放松,将被视为利好股市,同时也会降低投资者持有黄金的意愿。
上周金价震荡回落,美国两党接近谈妥债务上限,打压避险情绪。
昨天黄金窄幅震荡,有消息称新一轮美国债务上限谈判结束时没有取得多少进展,市场避险情绪升温,美债收益率也从逾两个月高点小幅回落,给金价提供反弹机会。