摘要:The price of gold continues to rebound, regaining its mid-September level of about $1800, thanks to rising investor inflation expectations.
The price of gold continues to rebound, regaining its mid-September level of about $1800, thanks to rising investor inflation expectations. Indeed, the famous “breakeven” inflation expectations have been rising since the last FOMC meeting at the end of September, with five-year expectations rising from about 2.40% to 2.95%. Longer-term inflation expectations have also risen, but to a lesser extent than short-term expectations.
At the same time, the yield curve continued to flatten, with short rates jumping in anticipation of faster Fed policy normalization, while long rates moved up and down, but are finally unchanged from last month.
As a result, long-term real rates (nominal rates - inflation outlook) have fallen sharply in recent weeks. The US 10-year real rate went from -0.82% at the end of September to -0.98% last Friday, which obviously benefited gold and other precious metals, known to be a shield against the loss of purchasing power.
However, it is difficult to imagine real rates falling further. This would require inflation expectations to rise further or nominal rates to fall. Much will depend on what happens to commodity prices, if they resume their surge, and on the FOMC's rhetoric next week after its meeting.
Fed officials have underestimated inflation, for now, perhaps to avoid the fear of hyperinflation. If the Fed is able to allay fears, it should lead to a rebound in real rates and thus a decline in the price of gold.
In any case, with real bond yields at their lowest, it is hard to imagine them going lower and thus envisage a real bullish potential for gold.
From a technical perspective, the short-term trend in gold prices has been bullish since the beginning of the month, but the long-term outlook remains bearish. The lows have been the same since the beginning of the year ($1676), but the highs are getting lower and lower, which indicates a fragility of the buyers.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 27.10.2021)
A return to the July and August highs at $1835 would be a technically interesting price level to look for a downward position (in view of a rebound in real rates). If this resistance is breached, which I think is unlikely for the reasons given, a move up to $1916 would be technically justifiable.
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
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昨晚商品大幅上涨,原因是美联储6月加息预期大幅回落,ADP数据再度大超预期,反映出目前就业市场依然偏强运行。
市场目前预计,美联储6月维持利率不变的可能性不到40%。如果在今年晚些时候(美联储)采取更温和的态度,这意味着可能会出现一定程度的利率放松,将被视为利好股市,同时也会降低投资者持有黄金的意愿。
上周金价震荡回落,美国两党接近谈妥债务上限,打压避险情绪。
昨天黄金窄幅震荡,有消息称新一轮美国债务上限谈判结束时没有取得多少进展,市场避险情绪升温,美债收益率也从逾两个月高点小幅回落,给金价提供反弹机会。